Two Seafarers. Two incredible rookie campaigns. Two shoulders bearing enormous aspirations.
The first is center fielder Julio Rodriguez, a 21-year-old Dominican powerhouse who won American League Rookie of the Year last season. There are “talented” individuals and then there are “generationally gifted” individuals, and there are indications that Rodriguez is closer to the second category. If they did not believe so, they would not have signed him to a contract that could pay him more than $400 million.
The number two starter is George Kirby. Kirby has the worldwide appeal of Julio, but he finished sixth in ALROY voting last season with a 3.30 ERA in 130 innings pitched.
According to conventional belief, these two would build upon their rookie campaigns and propel the Mariners into contention for the division title and maybe the World Series. So, should fans be concerned with the feared sophomore slump?
That was a query, not a prediction.
Major League Baseball is a league in which adaptation is as important to success as talent. With each pitch and at-bat, teams learn how to defeat their future opponents.
A few examples of first-year sensations that regressed in Year 2 to the dismay of their fans and the delight of their opponents:
Cody Bellinger: Between his rookie season in 2017 (when he hit 39 home runs in 132 games with a.933 OPS) and his MVP season in 2019 (when he hit 47 home runs with a 1.035 OPS), the then-Dodgers outfielder hit 25 home runs with an OPS of.814.
After coming second in the rookie of the year vote and earning World Series MVP in 1997, when the former Marlins pitcher went 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA, Livan Hernandez produced a 4.50 ERA and led the National League in hits allowed in 1998.
Troy Tulowitzki has appeared in five All-Star games and placed sixth in the vote for NL MVP in his third full season. After finishing second in the NLROY voting in 2007, the former shortstop for the Colorado Rockies had his OPS drop from.838 in Year 1 to.732 in Year 2 before rising to.930 in Year 2009.
Wil Myers: The former AL Rookie of the Year hit.293 and posted an OPS of.831 with the Rays in 2013 before falling to.222 and.611, respectively, in his sophomore season, and then making the All-Star team the following year.
There are plenty such instances. Gary Carter, who finished second in voting for rookie of the year in 1975, endured a notoriously difficult second season before making 10 straight All-Star selections later in his career. But, what does this imply?
The possibility, but not necessarily likelihood, of a sophomore slump.
Chris Gauthiers of batflipsandnerds.com analyzed 18 rookies of the year from 2010 to 2018 and discovered small declines between their first and second seasons.
The twelve batters’ batting line dropped from.293/.370/.538 to.282/.368/.492. The cumulative ERA of the six pitchers increased from 2.66 to 2.85, while their base-on-balls percentage fell. About superstars like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Jacob deGrom? Everyone improved throughout Year 2. Identical to how Ken Griffey Jr. performed during his second season in Seattle.
Regarding expectations, there is unquestionably a gulf between Rodriguez and Kirby. Many believe the former to be Griffey’s heir in terms of Hall of Fame talent and international popularity. The latter was selected in the middle of the first round and is living up to his promise. It’s conceivable Rodriguez won’t be as good in Year 2 (see Fernando Valenzuela, who won the Cy Young Award as a rookie and placed third the following year), but it’s unlikely he’ll decline considerably barring injury. Kirby is more doubtful.
FanGraphs.com predicts that the Mariners will win 85 games, compared to the Astros’ 90, and will contend for the AL West crown. To accomplish so, though, progress from their young players is essential, as is the continued good health that benefited their pitching staff last year.
What will it be then? There is both the beauty and the difficulty of opening day. One can never tell.
What about Julius and George? Supporters should anticipate them to be at least as excellent as last season, if not better, but should also be prepared for a regression.