Several of the matches on Day 4 of ATP competition at the Miami Open may appear to include significant rating gaps, but this might prove challenging for some of our seeded players. We’ve attempted to forecast some of them at LWOT, such as Alex De Minaur’s match against the Frenchman Quentin Halys and Matteo Berrettini’s match against Nadal’s Australian Open conqueror Mackenzie McDonald.
Day 4 ATP Miami Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Overall: Medvedev 1-0 Carballes Baena
The enhancements to Roberto Carballes Baena’s serve have been relatively unnoticed. When it does land, he’s statistically scoring more points than he used to, despite the fact that he’s finding the court a little less as he increases his risk-taking…
When he is not playing an exceptional returner. In these conditions, Daniil Medvedev’s return position should negate this advantage from the serve and serve return, and he also wins the majority of points from the baseline. This presents no difficulty for the man with all the momentum.
Berrettini defeats McDonald 2-0 in head-to-head competition
Let’s analyze Matteo Berrettini’s career victory percentage. Berrettini has a respectable 65% victory percentage on the ATP Tour, winning almost two out of three matches.
On clay, this rises to 69%, much closer to the top 10 players.
On grass, it increases to 85 percent, or more than four out of every five matches played.
His victory percentage on hard courts is only 57%, or around three victories for every two defeats.
Because to this backhand shortcoming, his play on artificial surfaces has been abysmally subpar. Against an opponent that excels from the baseline, this match is at best a draw. This year, Mackenzie McDonald is 11-3 versus players rated outside of the top 30, which matches Berrettini’s current level on this surface.
Halys leads De Minaur 1-0 in the matchup between the two teams (all levels)
Underrated or insufficiently prepared for the ATP Tour? Quentin Halys would certainly believe the former after advancing to the semifinals of an unbelievable draw at the Challenger in Phoenix last week, defeating the #58 and #65 rated players Emil Ruusuvuori and Gregoire Barrere, respectively.
This pairing is not ideal, though. Halys would like to face a more serve-oriented opponent, since he can totally control the match with his own serve. Sadly, Alex De Minaur is an outstanding returner who will require the Frenchman to provide a highly polished effort. Halys is doing well enough to have a chance, but the safe bet would be on two or three sloppy serve games from him deciding the match.